基于新旧动能转换下的财政金融风险--东北地区财政经济调研引发的思考

Fiscal and Financial Risks with the Conversion of New Kinetic Energy——Reflections on the Fiscal and Economic Investigation in Northeast China

当前我国经济运行的最大特点是新旧动能加速转换,未来几年内经济发展仍面临较大的下行压力,部分领域的风险也会加快释放,经济运行的困难和挑战将继续加大。对东北地区的调研发现,虽然东北地区经济发展和新旧动能转换势头良好,但存在的增收困难长期化、支出负担刚性化、债务增长隐性化、体制机制矛盾化、风险结构复杂化和区域差异扩大化等风险不容忽视。为此,应从以下几个方面着手,平稳度过高风险的新旧动能转换期,实现新动能驱动的新增长,使发展进入新境界:一是培育经济发展新优势,消除风险产生根源;二是加快新旧动能转换,增强经济发展动力;三是深化政府体制改革,降低风险积累可能;四是完善政策支持体系,提升风险化解能力。

At present, the biggest feature of China＇s economic operation is the accelerated conversion of the new kinetic energy. In the next few years, the development of the economy will be faced with greater downward pressure, and the risk will appear rapidly in some areas. The difficulties and challenges of economic operation will continue to increase. The investigation in Northeast China indicates that while the economic development and the new kinetic energy conversion go on well, it cannot be ignored that it is difficult to increase the fiscal revenue for a long-term, fiscal expenditure burden grows rigid, government debts become concealed, there are contradictions among policies, risk structure is complicated, and the regional disparities enlarge. Therefore, we should take the following counteracts to stably step over the period of new kinetic energy conversion, achieve a new growth driven by new kinetic energy： firstly, to cultivate new advantages of the economic development, and eliminate the risk causes; secondly, to accelerate the conversion of the new kinetic energy and enhance the power of economic development; thirdly, to deepen mechanism reform and reduce the risk of accumulation;fourthly, to improve the policy support system and enhance the ability to defuse risks.