基于贝叶斯网络的防空作战战损评估模型构建

Construction and Research of Air Defense Battle Damage Assessment Model Based on Bayesian Network

在防空作战中,为了有效地对战机战损进行评估,结合相关专家知识并引入贝叶斯网络进行评估模型的构建。通过引入Noisy-Or Gate模型简化网络的条件概率表(CPT)的获得,降低参数获得的复杂度。网络的推理采用精确推理中的团树传播算法,能够快速进行后验概率的推理与预测。在可视化软件Genie中的仿真结果表明,该网络模型能对不同战场证据进行快速的推理分析,为防空作战战损评估和指挥员的战术调整提供了一定的科学依据。

In order to assess the combat damage of the fighter in the air defense battle,this paperconstructs a model by integrating the expert knowledge and Beyesian network. To reduce the complexityof the obtained parameters and to simplify the gain of the network’ s conditional probability tables,Noisy-Or Gate model is introducted. The reasoning of the network adopts a kind of precise inferencealgorithm named clique tree propagation which could reason and predict the posteriori probabilityquickly. The simulation in the visual software Genie shows that this network model can quickly reasonand analyze different combat evidences,and what’ s more,it provides some scientific basis for airdefense battle damage assessment and the adjustment of the commander’ s tactics.