外资开放和人口流动对中国地方政府规模的影响分析——基于空间计量模型

The Effects of Foreign Capital Openness and Population Mobility on Local Government Size in China——Based on Spatial Econometric Model

运用空间计量分析方法研究了2000—2014年中国30个省(市、自治区)地方政府规模的空间分布格局,以及在地方政府预算软约束和户籍制度作用下外资开放、人口流动与中国地方政府规模的影响机制,并通过构建空间滞后模型(SLM)实证验证了外资开放、人口流动对中国地方政府规模的影响。结果显示:中国地方政府规模存在显著的空间自相关性,外资开放促进了中国地方政府规模的扩大,而人口流动有利于抑制地方政府规模的扩大。

By using the method of spatial econometrics, this paper studies the spatial distribution pattern of the local government size in 30 provinces（municipalities and autonomous regions） in China from 2000 to 2014,as well as the foreign capital openness, population mobility and local governments size in China under the soft budget constraints and household registration system of local governments,in addition,by constructing spatial lag model（SLM）,the impact of foreign capital openness, population mobility on local governments size is empirically verified as well. The results indicate that the spatial autocorrelation of local government size is significant and positive, and the foreign capital openness has promoted the expansion of local governments in China, however, the population mobility contributes to curbing the above-mentioned expansion.