中国网贷平台风险评估--基于网贷之家数据

Risk Evaluation of Online Lending Platforms in China——Based on the Data from Wang Dai Zhi Jia

运用Cox回归模型和因子分析方法,基于网贷之家等数据平台信息,对中国314家网贷平台的风险进行评估。Cox回归分析认为中国网贷平台的实缴资本每增加100万元,其出现问题的概率降低约5%;贷款利率每提高1个百分点,平台出现问题的概率增长约4.5%;非民营系平台的存活率大约是民营系平台的6.5倍。进一步应用因子分析法得出结论,平台的风险主要由平台的内部控制结构、产品设计、资金保障模式和平台类型等因素决定。这有利于平台控制自身风险和投资者客观了解平台,以确保网贷行业的健康发展。

Through using Cox regression model and factor analysis method,based on the platforms＇ data information such as Wang Dai Zhi Jia,the risk of 314 online loan platforms in China was evaluated. Cox regression analysis shows that for each additional 1 million yuan of paid-up capital of China＇s online lending platform, the probability of problems is reduced by about 5%;for each 1% increase in lending rates,the probability of a platform problem increases by about 4.5%;and the survival rate of non-private department platform is about 6.5 times in compared with the private. And further application of factor analysis concluded that the risk of the platform is mainly determined by the internal control structure,product design,financial security model and platform type and other factors of the platform, which can benefit the platform to control their own risks and investors to understand the objective platform,so as to ensure the healthy development of the net loan market.