中国柑橘全要素生产率演进及影响因素研究——基于Malmquist-Tobit模型的实证

Measuring the Total Factor Productivity of Citus in China and Studying Its Influence Factors——the Empirical Analysis Based on the Malmquist-Tobit Method

【目的】探究中国柑橘全要素生产率演进及其影响因素。【方法】首先采用中国柑橘2008—2014生产成本与收益数据,借助Malmquist指数法,对中国柑橘主产省份柑、桔全要素生产率演进及其分解进行测度与分析。在此基础上结合面板Tobit模型,分析了影响柑橘全要素生产率增长的外部因素。【结果】考察期内中国柑橘主产省份中,柑的全要素生产率年均增长率较高,桔相对较低;分省来看,不同省份间全要素生产率差距较大;考察期内,柑橘全要素生产率与技术进步波动基本趋于一致,但同时也受效率变化的影响;所考察的6个影响因素包括城市化率、农业机械总动力、每公顷人工总成本、农村居民家庭年人均纯收入、地方财政农林水事务支出与种植规模,均对柑橘全要素生产率的增长影响显著。【结论】为促进中国柑橘生产效率的提高,应当进一步加大对柑橘产业的扶持力度、鼓励创新、适当调整生产经营规模并推广机械的使用。

【Objective】This paper aims to measure the total factor productivity of citrus in China and study its influence factors.【Method】Firstly,based on the data of citrus production cost and profit from 2008 to 2014 in China,this paper measured and analyzed the evolution and decomposition of total factor productivity of citrus and orange in the main citrus producing provinces in China using Malmquist Produc-tivity Index approach. Furthermore,this paper adopted the Tobit regression model to analyze the envi-ronmental factors which influence the increase of total factor productivity of citrus.【Results】During the study period,the annual growth rate of total factor productivity of citrus was relatively high,and the level of orange was relatively low and the total factor productivity varied among different provinces. Furthermore,during the study period,the total factor productivity growth rate of citrus fluctuated with technology changes but was also affected by the change of efficiency. The six factors studied include urbanization rate,total agricultural machinery power,total labor cost per acre,annual per capita net income of rural households,expenditures for agriculture,forestry and water affairs of local finance and planting scale,and these factors all have significant impacts on the increase of citrus total factor productivity.【Conclusion】In order to improve the productivity efficiency of citrus in China,further supporting measures should be adopted,innovation should be encouraged,the scale of production should be properly adjusted and the use of machinery should be promoted.