山东省人口结构、产业发展与经济增长的耦合度分析

Studies on the Coupling Degree Among Population Structure,Industrial Development and Economic Growth in Shandong Province

基于山东省17地级市2003-2014年面板数据,运用三系统耦合模型,测算了人口结构、产业结构、经济增长三大系统的综合指数、协调度及耦合水平,揭示了三系统协调发展的动态演化特征。研究结果表明,山东省人口结构、产业结构、经济增长水平均保持了较为稳定的发展态势,三系统耦合协调水平逐年提升,但提升的主要动力"人口红利"正逐渐消失,产业系统与经济系统发展也尚不具备十足的动力。地区差异问题犹存,东西部地区差异缩少,南北向呈现"倒U型"分布。此外,二元系统耦合与三系统耦合变动存在较强的正向相关性,发展趋势基本一致。这提示优化产业发展结构,并进一步优化三类两系统之间的协调发展水平,将有助于切实提高本省三系统的耦合协调发展水平。

Based on the panel data of 17 cities in Shandong province from 2003 to 2014, the characteristics of the dynamic evolution in the coordinated development of three systems are revealed by using model of three systems and measuring the comprehensive index, the coordinationdegree and the coupling level of population structure, industrial structure and economic growth. The results show that the population structure, industrial structure and economic growth in Shandong Province have maintained a relatively steady trend of development and the coupling level of three systems has been improvedgradually, but the main power ＂demographic dividend＂ is disappearing and the development of industrial system and economic system still lacks the motivation. The differences remain among different regions. The difference between the eastern and western regions decreased but there is an inverted U -distribution in north - south direction. In addition, there is a strong positive correlation between binary systems and the coupling of the ternary systemand the trend is basically consistent. This suggests that it is helpful to improve the coordinated level of coupling development of the three systems byoptimizing the structureof industryand furtherdeveloping the levelofcoordinationbetween the three binary systems.