基于实物期权的PPP项目非正常移交决策研究

Research on Non-normal Transfer Decision of PPP Project Based on Real Options

由于未来的不确定性,PPP项目在移交过程中会出现非正常移交的情形。为解决项目在非正常移交中的决策问题,基于风险管理识别出实际项目在移交过程中的主要风险。基于政府方的视角,以政府主动提前移交和政府被动移交两个角度分别基于实物期权理论建立决策模型,倒推出提前移交的价格区间和政府方所持有的实物期权价值,给政府方以定量化的决策依据。并以C市养老PPP项目为案例验证该决策模型,为PPP项目的政府决策者提供合理有效的决策依据。

Due to future uncertainties, the PPP project will have an abnormal handover during the handover process.In order to solve theproblem of decision-making in the non-normal transfer of the project, the risk of the actual project is identified based on the risk manage-ment.Based on the perspective of the government side, the decision-making model is established based on the real option theory, the pricerange of the transfer and the real option value held by the government side are given to the government.The basis of decision-making.Andthrough the C city pension PPP project asa case to verify the decision model for the PPP project government decision makers to provideareasonable and effective basis for decision-making.