基于蒙特卡罗模拟的光伏电站运行风险评估

The Operating Risk Assessment of Photovoltaic Power Station Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

分布式光伏电站的健康安全运行是实现太阳能广泛应用的重要保障之一。建立了基于蒙特卡罗模拟的动态风险评估方法,确定了影响电站运行输出功率、直流电压、直流电流、温度、风速、瞬间辐射量6个主要评估动态因素,以某分布式光伏电站为例,监测数据拟合得出指标分布函数的A-D检验的P值均<1.5,拟合良好;进一步构造动态风险值的IF函数模型计算电站的运行风险,平均值为24.87,89.70%时间都处于正常运行,与实际运行情况吻合;敏感性图和数据得出最大的两个风险影响因素是电压(-0.49)和功率(+0.35),为风险的管理和转移提供依据。基于蒙特卡罗模拟的分布式光伏电站的定量动态风险值分析为评估分布式光伏电站系统的运行状态提供科学依据。

The safety operation of distributed photovoltaic power station is one of the major driving factors to achieve the extensive use of solar energy resources.The dynamic risk assessment method was established with output power,voltage,current,temperature,wind and solar radiant quantity as indexes to analyze the operating risk of the distributed photovoltaic power station based on Monte Carlo simulation.The application results of one distributed photovoltaic power station showed that the fitting distribution function matched well with monitoring data as the P value of A-D test was less than 1.5 for each index.Moreover,the average simulated risk based on IF function model was 24.87 with 89.70 percent good running of the studied time,which matched well with monitoring operating situation.It was concluded that the main factors to the operation risk of distributed photovoltaic power station were voltage（-0.49）and output power（＋0.35）according to the sensibility graph and data,which could provide reference for the management and transfer of risk.The quantitative analysis of dynamic risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation could assist in the monitoring and adjusting suggestion for distributed photovoltaic power station.