人口老龄化与房价波动对居民部门债务风险的影响研究

A Study on the Influence of the Population Aging and the Real Estate Price Fluctuation on the Risks of Residents' Debt

本文基于人口老龄化、房价波动与我国居民部门资产债务结构的基本事实及相关文献研究,探讨人口老龄化与房价对居民部门债务潜在风险的影响,并以世代交叠模型为基础,论证人口老龄化对房价及其居民杠杆率的影响机制,最后构建相关变量与误差修正模型等进一步考察了三者之间的动态相关性关系。实证结果表明,长期内人口老龄化加剧与房价下跌都会加大居民部门的债务风险,短期内人口老龄化对居民部门债务风险有正向影响但不如长期显著,房价下跌对居民部门债务风险的加剧效应也不会短期内显现出来。这说明居民部门仍存在潜在的债务风险,且在一定程度上受人口周期、房地产周期长期影响,表现在人口老龄化会降低房产需求形成房价下跌导致居民部门资产缩水、信贷增加,形成债务风险。

Based on the literature research of the basic facts and the relationship of population aging,real estate price and the structure of resident sector debt in china,this paper discusses the impact of population aging and real estate price on the potential risk of resident sector debt,analyzes the influence mechanism of population aging on real estate price and its residents' leverage ratio,tests the mechanism of population aging on housing prices and their residents' by using the overlapping model,and finally constructs relevant variables and error correction models to further study the dynamic correlation among these three factors. The empirical results show that in the long term the aging of the population and the decline of real estate prices will increase the debt risk of the residents sector,while in the shortterm population aging has a positive impact on the debt risk of the residents sector,though not as significant as the long-term one. In addition,the intensification effect of the falling real estate prices on the residents sector debt risk will not appear in the short term. This suggests that the resident sector still has a potential debt risk which,to a certain extent,is the long-term effect of the population cycle and the real estate cycle. The population aging will reduce the housing demand,causing the residents sector assets to shrink and their credit to grow,which will lead to the formation of debt risk.