公共管理与政策研究中的实地实验:因果推断与影响评估的视角

Field Experiments in Research of Public Administration and Public Policy:Causal Inference and Impact Evaluation

实验方法作为统计学因果推断的重要方法,在公共管理与公共政策研究中得到了越来越多的应用。实地实验作为实验方法的新发展,相比传统的实验室实验和调查实验具有更高的外在效度和现实应用价值,被广泛用于变量之间的因果推断及政策与项目的影响评估中。论文在解释实验方法的统计学因果推断基础、并比较各类实验优劣势之后,举例分析了实地实验的基本原理、程序和可能出现的各种现实问题,并以公共政策影响评估为切入点讨论了中国公共管理与政策研究中使用实地实验方法面临的挑战与机遇。

As an important method of statistical causal inference,experimental methods have been used more and more in the study of public administration and public policy.Field experiments,as a new development of experimental methods,have higher external validity and broader practical implications than traditional laboratory experiments.They are widely used in policy and program impact evaluations.After explaining the statistical principle of experimental methods and comparing various sorts of experiments,this paper analyzes the potential problems of field experiments.Using public policy impact evaluation as an example,the paper discusses the challenges and opportunities of field experiment methods in China.