气象要素对杂交中籼稻年度间产量波动的影响

The Influence of Correlations between Meteorological Elements and the Yield Fluctuation among Years of Hybrid Indica Rice

为探索各种气象要素对杂交中籼稻年度间产量波动的影响,以1990-2015年湖北省中籼稻区域试验产量资料及武汉、荆州、襄阳气象站的气象资料为依据,分析各种气象要素对杂交中籼稻年度间产量波动的相关性。结果表明,各种气象要素对水稻产量波动都有不同程度的影响,对产量波动影响大小依次为1990-2015年7-8月累计日照时数、累计蒸发量、日平均地温,其他气象要素影响相对较小;1990-2015年7-8月累计日照时数与水稻产量间的直接相关系数为0.597 7,达极显著水平;偏相关系数为0.687 0,达极显著水平;1990-2015年7-8月累计日照时数X7对产量Y有最大的直接正效应(X7→X7→Y=1.087 9),可导致杂交中籼稻年度间产量波动幅度为27.0%。

In order to explore the influence of various meteorological factors on the extent of annual production fluctuations of indica rice,based on the yield data of hybrid midseason indica rice regional area trail in Hubei province from 1990 to 2015 and the data of weather station in Wuhan,Jingzhou and Xiangyang city,the correlation between meteorological elements and the yield fluctuation of hybrid midseason indica rice in different years was analyzed. The results indicated that all meteorological elements had different effects on the yield of hybrid midseason rice in different years. From July to August during 1990-2015,and the meteorological elements from high to low level on the influence of yield fluctuation were accumulative total sunshine time,cumulative evaporation,and mean daily ground temperature, while other meteorological elements had relatively small influence. The direct correlation coefficient between the cumulative sunshine hours and the rice ’s yield was 0.597 7 from July to August during 1990-2015,which reached extremely significant level; And the indirect correlation coefficient was 0.687 0,which reached extremely significant level. From July to August during 1990-2015,the cumulative sunshine X7（X7→X7→Y=1.087 9） showed directly effect on the output Y had the largest,which lead to the intercropping yield fluctuation range of indica rice was 27.0%.