经济虚拟化与中国高货币化之谜——中国省级面板数据分析

Economic Virtualization and the Mystery of China's High Monetization——Based on China's Provincial Panel Data

近年来,我国的高货币化之谜一直成为学界关注的焦点问题。本文首先通过对我国经济虚拟化进程与货币化率之间的宏观与省级微观数据的分析和比较,认为经济虚拟化对货币化率的作用机制不但来自于货币需求方面,更重要的在于虚拟经济特殊的GDP创造机制,同时依据作用机制构建理论模型。其次,利用1996-2014年31个省市数据对理论模型进行实证检验,结果表明:经济虚拟化进程对货币化率的提高具有显著的正向影响。最后,针对虚拟化进程与货币化率之间趋势差异和2008年后货币化率的快速上升进行分析,认为我国银行业市场化改革是导致差异形成的主要原因,而后者的原因在于以家庭财富结构的变化和以银行为主的融资体系。

In recent years,China＇s high monetization of the mystery has become the focus of attention in academic circles.Firstly,based on the analysis and comparison of Chinese macro data and provincial microcosmic data,this paper argues that the mechanism of economic virtualization to monetization rate not only comes from the demand of money,but also lies in the virtual economy special GDP creation mechanism,and constructs the theoretical model according to the mechanism of action;Secondly,based on the 31 provinces and cities data from 1996 to 2014,the empirical results show that the economic virtualization process has a significant positive effect on the improvement of the monetization rate.Finally,based on the analysis of the trend difference between the virtualization process and the monetization rate and the rapid increase of the monetization rate after2008,it is considered that the market reform of China＇s banking industry is the main reason leading to the formation of the difference.The latter is due to changes in the structure of the family wealth and bank-based financing system.