“一带一路”建设下中国OFDI的贸易效应研究——基于GTAP模型的分析

Research on Trade Effects of China's OFDI under the Building of the Belt and Road:Analysis Based on GTAP Model

文章在Helpman et al.(2004)的基础上,通过建立一个简单的理论框架分析了传统模式下和"一带一路"背景下OFDI贸易效应的作用机理,并利用GTAP模型进行模拟。实证结果显示:中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的OFDI能使东道国资本使用效率约提升1.83%;在控制各地区设施联通与贸易畅通的情况下,中国各行业的进口贸易总体上比出口贸易乐观,且中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的OFDI能促进本国产业结构升级;以设施联通情境为基础,在剔除OFDI传统模式下的贸易替代效应与贸易互补效应后,中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的OFDI具有显著的贸易创造效应,其中中亚地区贸易创造效应最明显。同时发现,中国的进出口贸易重心正逐步迁移至"一带一路"沿线国家。

On the basis of Helpman et al. （2004）, this paper analyzes the mechanism of OFDI＇s trade effects under the traditional model and the Belt and Road background by establishing a simple theoretical framework and simulates it with GTAP model. The empirical results show that China＇ s OFDI to the countries along B＆R can increase the efficiency of capital use in the host country by about 1.83%. With the control of all regional facilities and the smooth flow of trade, the import trade of all industries in China is generally better than the export trade and China＇s OFDI in the countries along B＆R can promote the domestic industrial structure upgrading. On the basis of facilities connectivity, excluding OFDI＇s trade substitution effect and the complementary effect, China＇s OFDI in the countries along B＆R has significant trade creation effect and Central Asia will be the most fully played. At the same time, the focus of China＇s import and export trade is gradually shifted to the countries along B＆R.