甘肃省林业气象服务效益评估

Benefit Evaluation of Forestry Meteorological Service in Gansu Province

利用德尔菲法,选取5个林业生产典型单位、21位省级林业行业专家,开展2轮专家调查评估,对甘肃省林业气象服务效益进行评估。结果表明,甘肃省林业气象服务效益贡献率为5.81%,效益值约2.15亿元;林业生产对气象因素非常敏感,林业气象服务效益显著;德尔菲法操作简单易行,对行业数据要求不高,评估结果具有一定的合理性和科学性,是进行行业气象服务效益定量评估比较理想的评估方法;可以通过增加调查轮次,降低调查专家的主观因素对评估结果的影响。

Based on Delphi method, forestry meteorological service benefit was evaluated by using survey data from 5 typical forestry production units and 21 forestry experts. The results showed that the contribution rate of forestry meteorological service benefit was 5.81% ,and the benefit value was about 215 million yuan. Forestry is highly sensitive to meteorological factors,and forestry meteorological service benefit is remarkable. Delphi method is simple and easy to operate without professional data,and its evaluation results are reasonable and scientific,so it＇s an ideal method to evaluate meteorological service benefit. More rounds of survey will be helpful to reduce the impact of subjective factors on the evaluation.