我国天然气消费与经济增长的动态关联研究

Research on Dynamic Association of Natural Gas Consumption with Economic Growth in China

近年来我国天然气消费量与经济增长都得到了持续稳定的快速发展，经济发展与天然气消费增长表现出一定的同步性和协调性，研究天然气消费与经济增长之间的影响关系具有重要的现实意义。在对天然气消费与经济增长之间的作用机制进行详细分析的基础上，选取2000～2014年我国30个省市的面板数据，以国内生产总值、固定资产投资完成额、天然气消费量、就业人数等为研究变量，基于拓展的C-D生产函数模型进行实证．采用面板分位数回归模型研究在不同经济发展水平下，天然气消费对经济增长影响的边际效应。结果表明，经济发展水平越高，天然气消费对经济增长影响的边际效应越大。通过不同经济发展水平的高、中、低三组数据对研究结论做进一步的验证．我国目前应进一步深化天然气体制改革，对天然气产业链的各个环节放开准人限制．推动投资主体多元化，打破垄断，形成公平的市场竞争；优化天然气定价机制，制定合理的天然气定价方案，引导形成市场化的价格发现机制：同时，政府应鼓励引导天然气消费在各个行业领域的合理应用，积极培育健康的天然气消费市场，对于天然气发电、工业燃气、交通运输用气等天然气应用领域．应给予一定的政策支持和激励措施。

In recent years, China has maintained steady and rapid development of natural gas consumption and economic growth, and the development of economy has been synchronous and coordinated with the growth of natural gas consumption to a certain degree.Therefore ,it is of great practical significance to study the in- teraction between natural gas consumption and economic growth.Based on the detailed analysis of the interac- tion mechanism between natural gas consumption and economic growth,this paper selects the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2010 to 2014 and takes gross domestic product,fixed assets invest- ment,natural gas consumption and quantity of employment as the variables to perform empirical analysis based on the extended Cobb-Douglas production function model,and uses panel quantile regression （PQR） model to study the marginal effect of natural gas consumption on economic growth at different levels of eco- nomic development.The results show that the higher the level of economic development,the greater the marginal effect of natural gas consumption on economic growth.The panel data is classified into three groups according to high,medium and low levels of economic development to further verify the PQR conclusions.At present,China should further deepen the reform of natural gas system,relax the restrictions on investment in various links of natural gas industrial chain,promote the diversification of investment entities,break the monopoly,create fair market competition,optimize the pricing mechanism of natural gas,develop reasonable natural gas pricing scheme,and provide guidance in the formation of market-based price discovery mecha- nism.At the same time,the government should encourage and guide the rational consumption of natural gas in various industries,actively develop a healthy natural gas consumption market,and provide certain policy sup- port and incentives for natural gas applications such as natural gas power generation,industrial gas and trans- portation gas.