葡萄花油田压裂后单井产量预测分析

Analysis of Single Well Production Prediction after Fracturing in Putaohua Oilfield

随着油田注水开发的不断深入，合理的压后产量预测已成为影响下泵完井和后期跟踪调整的必要因素，而压后产量预测的准确程度主要取决于压裂效果的影响程度。通过分析油井压裂效果各影响因素的权重，明确了压裂砂岩厚度、压裂有效厚度、连通水井总注入量和总加砂量为主要影响因素，影响权重占70％以上。结合葡萄花油田各区块的储层特点及增液量，采用多元线性回归法进行分析和产液量公式推导，并结合各区块渗透率、孔隙度及导流能力等影响因素进行修正，通过对近5年各区块186口压裂井的单井压裂实际增液量进行验证．绘制压裂后实际增液量与预测增液量误差对比图版．结果显示误差较大井所占比例在10％以内。将该预测方法应用于压后完井泵径设计，结合不同机型、不同泵径及参数组合下的产液量情况，可较好满足葡萄花油田各区块压裂井泵径设计的需求。

Along with the deepening of water flooding in the oilfields ,the reasonable production prediction af- ter fracturing has become a necessary factor of influencing well completion by downhole pump and later tracking and adjustment.However,the accuracy of the production prediction after the fracturing depends on the influence degree of fracturing effect mainly.After the weight of the influencing factors of fracturing effect for oil wells was analyzed,fractured sandstone thickness,effective fractured thickness,total injection rate of the connected water wells and total sanding rate were known as the main factors with more than 70% of the weight.Combined with the reservoir characteristics and liquid increment in each block of Putaohua Oilfield, multivariate linear regression was applied to formula deduction of fluid production.The formula was corrected according to the influencing factors of permeability ,porosity and conductivity for each block.Actual fluid incre- ment of 186 fractured wells in each block in the past five years was verified,and error chart of the actual fluid increment and predicted fluid increment after fracturing was drawn.The results show that wells with large error were less than 10%.This method was applied to the pump diameter design of well completion af- ter the fracturing, and it can meet the demands of the pump diameter design for the fractured wells of each block in Putaohua Oilfield according to the fluid production at various models ,pump diameter and parameter combination.