某石化企业加油站成品油补货量预测优化

Optimization of Prediction Algorithm for Refined Oil Replenishment in Gas Stations of a Petrochemical Enterprise

加油站成品油销售、补货量及补货时间窗预测在整个成品油物流业务中至关重要。对某石化企业加油站成品油补货量建立方法模型，在充分考虑加油站各个油罐过去一段时间的进销存数据、每个油罐当前的库存量、当前的在途订单、有效罐容、停泵罐容、油罐的罐存标准、可用槽车隔舱容量等信息、加油站的卸油时间、油库的提油时间、各个加油站可用槽车的工作时间、槽车的优先级别、油罐的有效罐容、停泵罐容、销售量波动情况等信息的情况下，预测、生成每个油罐对应的补货量。应用此算法．对某地区500余个加油站每天的补货量进行预测，90．5％的加油站可确保各种油品在正常销售过程中既不会发生断货，也不会发生油罐不容纳的情况，其中一日一配类加油站的适用率能达到95．6％．多日一配类加油站的适用率能达到91．1％，一日多配类加油站的适用率能达到88．4％。采用此算法对某地区配送计划进行验证，对比实际计划，车辆的正点到达率可提高0．1％，可减少脱销3次，节费约2万元。

The forecast of refined oil sales ,replenishment volumes and replenishment time windows for gas stations are of crucial importance throughout the refined oil logistics business.This paper studies the prediction algorithm for refined oil replenishment in the gas stations of a petrochemical enterprise,and fully considers the invoicing data of oil tanks in the gas stations over a period of time ,the current inventory of each tank, the current orders in transit,the effective tank capacity,the tank capacity when the pump stops,the storage standards of oil tanks ,the available capacity of tank car compartment,the oil unloading time at gas stations, the oil pickup time at oil depots ,the working hours of available tank car in each gas station,the priority of tank car,the effective tank capacity of oil tank,the tank capacity when the pump stops and the fluctuation in sales to forecast and generate the corresponding replenishment volume for each oil tank.This algorithm is used to forecast the daily replenishment volume of more than 500 gas stations in a certain area,90.5% of which can guarantee the supply of various oils for normal sales and ensure that there is enough space in the oil tanks for these oils.The applicable rates of this algorithm for gas stations with one oil distribution per day,one oil distribution every few days and multiple oil distributions per day can reach 95.6%,91.1% and 88.4% respectively.It is also used to verify the distribution plan of a certain area.Compared with the actual plan,the on-time arrival rate of vehicles can be increased by 0.1%,the number of out-of-stock can be re- duced by 3 times,and about 20 thousand yuan can be saved.