价格企稳回升 行业全面回暖——2017年国内外油气行业发展概述及2018年展望

Overview of international oil and gas industry developments in 2017 and outlook for 2018

2017年,布伦特原油均价升至55美元/桶。全球石油市场供需趋于平衡,但供需平衡仍较为脆弱,资源国减产和美国增产博弈依然是影响平衡的最大变数;全球天然气市场走出疲软,气价触底反弹;全球油气并购明显回暖,国际大石油公司参与程度提高,储量交易价格比上年上升42%,但仍处于较低水平,油气交易仍处于窗口期。中国石油表观消费量增速回升,对外依存度达到67%;天然气消费量超预期增长,出现阶段性、区域性供气不足和LNG零售价格飙升;炼油能力重回增长,总炼油能力达到7.7亿吨/年;石油产量继续下降,总产量为1.92亿吨。中国三大石油公司经营业绩明显回升,主要生产指标稳步增长。预计2018年布伦特原油均价升至60~65美元/桶,行业景气程度继续提升;天然气市场景气程度继续提高,三地价格有升有降,LNG市场继续向买方倾斜。2018年,中国石油表观消费量将首次突破6亿吨,对外依存度将逼近70%;天然气需求量仍将保持快速增长;中国炼油能力将首次突破8亿吨/年,过剩问题更趋严重。在国际油价上升、上游投资增长、石油公司经营机制改革等有利因素驱动下,中国原油产量有望出现恢复性增长。三大石油公司将继续推进专业化重组上市、矿区服务改革,并在经营机制改革方面进一步深入。

The average price of Brent crude rose to $55 per barrel in 2017 and the global oil market was in balance. However, the balance between supply and demand was relatively weak and the reduction of resource countries and the game of American production increase were still the biggest variables that affected balance. The global natural gas market emerged from weakness and the price of gas bottomed out. Global oil and gas M＆A had recovered significantly, with the participation of major international oil companies increased, and the price of reserves was up 42% from the previous year, but it was still at a low level and oil and gas trading was still in the window phase. The apparent consumption of oil had rebounded, with a foreign dependency ratio of 67%. The consumption of natural gas exceeded the expected growth, with the regional supply shortage in stage and LNG retail price soaring. The refining capacity was back to growth, with total refining capacity reached 770 million tons per year. The oil production continued to fall, with a total output of 192 million tons. The operating performance of China＇s three major oil companies had recovered significantly, and the main production indicators had steadily increased. The average price of Brent crude is expected to rise to $60 - $65 per barrel in 2018 and the industry continues to improve. The natural gas market will continue to improve with fluctuating price and the LNG market will continue to tilt towards buyers. The apparent consumption of oil will exceed 600 million tons for the first time and its dependence on external supply will be close to 70%. Gas demand will continue to grow rapidly. China＇s refining capacity will exceed 800 million tons for the first time and the overcapacity will be more serious. China＇s crude oil production is expected to grow in a recovery, driven by rising international oil prices, upstream investment growth and reform of the oil company＇s operating system. The three major companies will continue to promote the reform of professional restructuring and mining services, and further deepen the reform of the management mechanism.