出口变动、产业特性与失业——基于中国微观数据的实证研究

Changes of Export, Industrial Features and Unemployment:An Empirical Study Based on Micro-level Data of China

基于2002—2012年的中国海关数据和中国城镇住户调查数据,本文探讨了一般贸易和加工贸易出口变动对各部门失业的影响。实证结果表明:正向出口变动尤其是加工贸易出口变动显著降低了劳动密集产业主导地区的失业,这一效应在东部地区和私有部门更加明显;国有企业资本更加密集,正向出口变动增加了东部地区资本密集产业主导地区国有部门的失业。基于教育水平、性别、年龄的分组研究进一步证实了上述结果。基于工业企业数据的实证结果提供了进一步的支持性证据。本文首次利用多年的连续家庭调查数据从不同类型出口变动视角研究了中国的失业问题,有助于理解外部经济环境变化对失业的影响,在贸易保护主义风险高涨的背景下具有重要启示。

With the use of Customs data and Urban Household Survey（UHS） during 2002-2012, this paper investigates the impact of ordinary export and processing export changes on unemployment of different sectors. Empirical results demonstrate that positive export changes, especially processing export changes decrease the unemployment of the labor-intensive sector and such pattern is more evident in the eastern region and private sector. Since state-owned firms are more capital-intensive, positive export changes increase the unemployment of the capital-intensive state sector in the eastern region. Further empirical results based on the division of the sample according to education, gender and age corroborate the above findings. Empirical results based on the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms（ASIF） lend further support to the baseline findings. This paper is the first endeavor to explore how different types of export changes affect unemployment in China by employing a household survey that spans consecutively for many years. It sheds light on how the change of external economic environment affects unemployment and has rich policy implications in face of the upsurge in trade protectionisms.