基层财政支出配置模式有利于农户脱贫吗——来自中国农村家庭追踪调查的证据

Does Decision-making of Grassroots Fiscal Expenditure Favor the Poor?——Evidence from Tracking Investigation of the Chinese Countryside Families

基层财政支出配置模式是影响低收入人群福利水平和贫困发生概率的重要因素。本文在构建财政支出结构效应理论分析框架的基础上,利用面板Logistic模型和工具变量法检验村财政各项支出项目对农村家庭贫困的作用机理及动态效应。全样本的实证检验结果显示:村财政人均教育投资对农户的扶贫效应最大,其次是农业水利生产投资,而村财政对村民的转移支付和行政费用支出的减贫效应较弱,其中直接拨付给村民的支出助长贫困的作用会随着时间的推移不降反升。此外,村财政各项支出对农户贫困发生概率的影响程度在不同年份具有显著差异,且随着家庭中户主受教育年限、性别、年龄结构的不同而呈现出异质性。有鉴于此,在制定扶贫支出政策过程中应注重各类家庭的个性特征,实施精确识别、精确帮扶、精确管理的治贫方式。同时,适度增加基层财政的教育支出、农业水利生产投资等生产性支出的比重及规模,杜绝简单粗放、大水漫灌似的单一直接补贴或非生产性支出模式,提高贫困农户的"造血"能力,切实缓解农村贫困问题。

Grassroots public spending decisions play important roles in low-income people＇s welfare level and the occurrence probability of poverty. This paper adopted logit model and instrumental variable method to test how the rural fiscal expenditure impacted on poor rural families in China by the panel data of village, family and adult in CFPS in 2010 and 2014. The whole sample empirical analysis result showed that the effect of per person education spending on decreasing impoverishment rate was the greatest, followed by productive investment of agriculture and water conservancy. The bigger the villager＇s expenditure and administrative cost directly allocated by village finance, the higher the poor probabilities occurred. Villagers expenditure directly allocated by the village finance had more influential than the administrative cost on poor. The impact of the fiscal expenditure on the probabilities of poor occurrence had obvious heterogeneous distributions with different of years of education, gender, average age. There was no significant difference regression conclusion of subgroup regression and whole sample regression. Given that, in the formulation of pro-poor policy process we should emphasize the personality traits of all households and implement precisely identify, accurately help and precisely management. We should moderate increasing more education spending, the scale and ratio of investment in the agriculture and water infrastructure. Simple and extensive and single subsidization must end. It is vitally important to enhance the ＂blood making＂ capacity of the poor families in favor of alleviating the rural poverty problems.