供给端补贴、需求端补贴与补贴退坡政策——基于三部门DSGE模型分析

Supply-Side Subsidies,Demand-Side Subsidies and Subsidy Backslope Policy:A Study on a DSGE Model with Three Sections

本文采用三部门DSGE模型对供给端和需求端补贴的动态效应、传导机制及两者差异性进行系统分析,在此基础上结合中国1952—2015年的经济数据进行参数校准,分别通过模型的敏感性分析和福利损失分析对补贴退坡政策进行评价。本文归纳出以下结论:(1)从短期看,需求端补贴在消费、产出及劳动投入方面具有更大的促进效用;(2)从补贴实施效果看,需求端补贴所产生激励作用相对滞后,而供给端补贴除将永久性提高消费者购买能力以外,对通胀和实际利率影响相对中性;(3)从社会福利角度看,需求端补贴将更加适合补贴退坡政策,并且其补贴退坡幅度的临界点应该在14%左右,补贴过快地"离场"对产业,尤其新兴产业会造成致命性打击。据此,本文提出在制定和实施补贴退坡政策时,首先应该以需求端补贴及退坡幅度为工作重点,优化供给端补贴实施效果仍是核心工作,而制定和完善相应的补贴监管政策是供给端补贴发挥激励作用的政策性保障。

In this paper, we use the three-sector DSGE model to analyze the dynamic effect, conduction mechanism and the differences between the supply-side and demand-side subsidies. Based on this, we use the economic data from 1952 to 2015 in China to calibrate the parameters, take sensitivity analysis and welfare loss analysis to evaluate the subsidy policy. This paper concludes as follow. （ 1 ） In the short run, demand-side subsidies have a greater promoting effect on consumption, output and labor input. （2） From the effect of subsidy implementation, incentive effect of demand-side subsidies is relatively lagging, and supply-side subsidies will permanently improve consumer purchasing power, while inflation and real interest rates are relatively neutral. （3） Demand-side subsidies will be more suitable for subsidies and backslope policies from the perspective of social welfare. The critical point for the magnitude of its subsidies to be set off should be around 14%. Subsidies that are ＂leaving＂ too quickly will have a fatal blow to industries, especially emerging industries. Accordingly, this paper puts forward that we should firstly focus on the demand-side subsidies and the extent of backslope when formulating and implementing the policy of subsidy de4-eseaping. Optimizing the effect of supply-side subsidies is still the same core work, and formulating and improving the corresponding subsidy regulation policy is a policy guarantee that supply-side subsidies play an incentive role.