迁移受阻对国民经济影响的定量分析

Quantitative Research on the Impact of Blocked Urbanization on National Economy

文章分析了城市化过程中的年度人口"钟摆式"流动、长期中流动人口"青出老回"和"在城市中漂泊"3种形态;并用国际同等人均GDP发展阶段的城市化水平、农业劳动力就业比例等国际标准值,比较中国城市化、市民化的滞后偏差,以及劳动力就业在产业中的错配和窝积偏差,计算了体制对人口流动和迁移进行干预和阻碍时,国民经济居民收入、消费需求和GDP产出方面的损失。研究结果显示,2016年人口流动和市民化滞后按照标准值形成国民收入37 175亿元的损失,占当年全国居民总收入329 375亿元的11.29%;按照人口迁移受阻本应成为城市市民仍在农村的人口损失的消费需求为26 665亿元,由于户籍管制不能转为市民的非户籍城镇常住居民损失的消费需求为17 150亿元,两项共计消费需求损失43 815亿元,占当年居民消费总额的18.52%;由于劳动力在农业中窝积产生劳动力产业错配,损失的国内生产总值为90 281亿元,占当年GDP的12.13%。文章认为,随着时间的推移,这种滞后还伴有损失的积累放大效应,这应当是本次国民经济生产过剩和增长速度放缓的一个重要原因。

This paper analyzes three forms of migration in urbanization,i.e.the annual pendulum-type flow,young people’s moving to urban areas but returning to rural areas when they are old,and villager’s drifting in the cities.Considering China’s reality and based on standard values of the urbanization level and the proportion of agricultural labor force,this paper compares the lagging deviation of urbanization and civilization,and the mismatch of labor employment in the industry,calculates the loss of resident income,consumption demand and GDP output of the national economy when the system intervenes and hinders the population flow and migration.The results show that in 2016 population flow and urbanization lagged at a standard value formed loss of 37.175 billion Yuan,accounting for 11.29% of the total national income of 32.9775 trillion Yuan.The reduced consumption demand of supposed urban residents who were still in rural areas was 2.6665 trillion Yuan.Meanwhile,the consumption demand loss by the residents from rural areas with their citizenship hindered by household registration was 1.715 trillion yuan.The total consumption demand loss was 4.3515 trillion yuan,accounting for 18.52% of total annual consumption of the year.Too many of the laborers have been stuck in agriculture,which leads to the mismatch of the labor force industry.In 2016,the GDP loss was 9,028.1 billion Yuan,accounting for 12.13% of the GDP of that year.The paper believes that this lagged effect will be continually accumulating latter on,which should be one of important reasons for the overproduction and the slowdown of the national economy.