城市行政层级视角的人口流动影响机理研究

A Study on the Influence Mechanism of Urban Population Migration from the Perspective of City's Administrative Level

文章以中国特有的城市治理结构为背景,从城市行政层级角度构建了人口流动影响机理的分析框架,并基于2006~2015年中国35个大中城市统计数据,运用系统GMM方法对中国城市间人口流动的影响机理进行了实证分析。研究结果显示,城市行政层级作为中国城市间发展不平衡的制度性根源,对流动人口产生直接的正向影响。同时,体制转型过程中产生流动人口"用脚投票"的市场机制,表现为城市公共服务水平和商品房价格分别对流动人口产生显著的正向拉力和反向推力,但城市行政层级会削弱"用脚投票"机制作用的力度与强度,因此,中国城市间人口流动机制是一种行政层级制掣下的"用脚投票"机制。此外,城市间人口流动还存在明显的惯性,强化了流动人口向高行政层级城市集聚的趋势。

Under the institutional background of China’s unique city governance structure,this paper constructs an analytical framework of population migration mechanism from the perspective of city administrative level,and conducts corresponding empirical analysis using the Sys-GMM estimation method based on the panel data of China’s 35 major cities in2006-2015.The empirical results show that the variable of city administrative level,as the institutional origin of unbalanced development among cities,exerts a positive influence on immigration.Meanwhile,population migration follows a market mechanism of"voting by feet"in the process of China’s system transformation,which is featured by the positive pulling force of cities’public services and the negative pushing power of housing prices to population migration.Since both of these two effects will be constrained by city administrative level,Chinese-style population migration mechanism is a"voting with their feet"mechanism under the constraints of administrative hierarchy.In addition,there is an obvious inertia in population migration among cities,which strengthens the trend of population aggregation to the cities with higher administrative level.