中国出生人口数量变化研究

Research on the Change of the Number of the Birth in China

出生人口数量变化是多种因素综合作用的结果。文章基于中国1982、1990、2000和2010年全国及分省的人口普查数据,使用分解方法,将出生人口数量变化分解为育龄妇女总量、育龄妇女年龄结构和生育率3个因素变化的影响。研究发现,1982~1989年中国的出生人口数量增加主要受育龄妇女总量增加的影响,1989~2000年出生人口大幅下降主要受生育率降低的影响,2000~2010年小幅度减少,是育龄妇女总量增加使其增加、育龄妇女年龄结构变化和生育率降低使其减少共同作用的结果。1982~1989年出生人口数量增加的省份主要受育龄妇女总量增加的影响,而出生人口数量减少的省份主要受生育率下降的影响;1989~2000年全部省份出生人口数量大幅下降,主要是由生育率下降导致的;2000~2010年出生人口数量增加的省份主要分布在东南沿海地区,生育率使出生人口数量增加的省份也主要分布在东南地区。根据分析育龄妇女总量、育龄妇女年龄结构和生育率3个因素对出生人口数量影响的变化趋势,可以预测中国未来出生人口数量可能会进一步下降。

The change of the number of the birth results from a comprehensive effect composed of several factors.Based on the census data from 1982,1990,2000 and 2010,this paper decomposes the change of the number of the birth into the changes of total size of childbearing age women,age structure of childbearing age women,and fertility rate by using decomposition method.The research finds that the increase in the number of the birth from 1982 to 1989 was attributed mainly to the increase in the total size of childbearing age women.The marked decline in the number of the birth from1989 to 2000 was largely the result of a significant decline in the fertility level.The slight decline from 2000 to 2010 was a combination of all three factors.Between 1982 and 1989,provinces with increase of the number of the birth were attributed mainly to the increase in the total size of childbearing age women,whereas provinces with decline were due to the decrease in the fertility rate.Between 1989 and 2000,the number of the birth in all provinces decreased markedly because mainly of the significant decline in the fertility rate.Between 2000 and 2010,the provinces with the increase in the number of the birth were concentrated in southeastern coastal areas,and the provinces with the increase driven by rising fertility rate were also concentrated in southeastern areas.According to the analyses on the three factors affecting the change of the number of the birth,it is predictable that the number of the birth will further decline.