流动人口二孩生育意愿研究

Research on Migrants' Fertility Intention of the Second Child

文章通过对2016年流动人口动态监测调查数据的分析,探讨已有一孩流动人口的二孩生育意愿,结果显示:(1)该人群二孩生育意愿较弱,在15~49岁的受访者中,仅有22.6%明确表示打算生育二孩,近50%表示无此打算,31%表示"没想好";明确打算生育二孩和不确定的比例均随着年龄的增长而递减,无此打算的比例则随着年龄的增长稳步上升。(2)不打算生育二孩的主要原因是成本过高。(3)尽管城镇化进程在总体上降低了流动人口的生育意愿,但二孩生育意愿仍与一孩特征密切相关:流动人口具有明显的男孩偏好;一孩年龄较大、不与受访者同住均会降低二孩生育意愿,而隔代照料可提升二孩生育意愿。文章认为,对打算生育二孩的流动人口,应做好妇幼服务工作,提供平等的托幼服务和其他方面的政策支持;对因生育成本过高而犹豫不决或不打算生育的育龄人群,应采取相应的生育支持政策。

By using data from Migrant Dynamic Monitoring Survey,this paper explores the fertility intention of the second child of migrants who have the first child.The results show that:(1)there is no strong intention to have a second child:only 22.6% of respondents whose age is at 15 to 49 expressed the intention of having a second child,compared to about half of respondents who expressed not,and 31% expressed"no idea".With the increase of age,the percentage of respondents who want a second child and who are not sure is decreasing,and the percentage of respondents who do not want a second child is steadily increasing.(2)The lacking intention of the second child is linked to the high costs of childrearing.(3)Even though,in general,the process of urbanisation reduces migrants’fertility intention,and fertility intention of the second child also has closely related to characteristics of the first child:migrants retain clear son preference,and their intention of having a second child is constrained by the age of the first child,location of resident and caregiver.This paper thinks that,to migrants who want to have a second child,we should improve maternity and child health services,and provide equal childcare services and other policies support.To people who are not sure or do not want a second child because of higher childrearing costs,we should implement relative policies to support them.