我国福祉水平的综合评价与时空演变

Comprehensive Measure and Temporal-spatial Evolution of Welfare Level in China

提升人类福祉、协调区域间福祉水平逐渐成为人类发展的目标和重点。从经济、社会、环境三个方面构建福祉水平评价指标体系,以省域为基本研究单元,综合运用熵权法、LISA时间路径、时空跃迁等方法对1990—2015年我国福祉水平进行评价,并分析其时空动态性特征。结果表明:(1)总体上,我国福祉水平呈增长态势,但级差化特征明显。(2)福祉水平具有显著的空间正相关性,其空间差异呈波动缩小的趋势。(3)我国福祉水平空间格局的演化具有较强的空间整合性,西部地区具有多变的空间结构,东部和中部省区空间结构稳定。(4)我国省域福祉水平的局部空间关联模式和集聚特征具有较强的稳定性,表现为一定的空间依赖和锁定特征。

Promoting the level of human welfare and harmonizing the welfare differences between different regions gradually became the goal and focus of human development. This paper constructed the evaluation index system of the well- being level from three aspects： Economic, social and environmental aspects. Using the province as the basic research unit, this paper used the entropy method, the LISA time path and the spatio - temporal transition method to evaluate the level of well - being in China from 1990 to 2015, and analyzed its space - time dynamic characteristics. The results showed that：（1）The level of well - being in china was generally increasing, but the characteristics of differentiation were obvious. （2）The level of human welfare in China was positively correlated, and the spatial variation of human welfare was fluctuating. （3） Time- path analysis showed that spatial pattern of human welfare in China had strong spatial integration, in which the Western Region had a changeable spatial structure, and the spatial structure of the Eastern and Central Provinces was stable. （4）The temporal and spatial transition analysis showed that the local spatial correlation model and agglomeration characteristics of the provincial welfare level in China had strong stability, which was characterized by certain spatial dependence and locking characteristics.