基于残差修正GM(1,1)模型的包神北线货运量预测

Prediction of BaoShen north railway freight based on GM(1,1)model with residual error correction

运用灰色理论,以包神铁路北线2010—2016年的货运量为基础对包神北线的货运量进行预测。根据GM(1,1)模型建立的步骤,建立包神北线货运量预测模型,并对残差进行分析,并通过残差修正模型对残差进行修正;最后使包神北线货运量的预测值在合理的预测精度之内,并对预测结果进行分析。为管理决策人员做出科学合理的决策提供理论依据。

This paper, using the gray system theory, builds a modified-residual GM（ 1, 1） model according to the data from 2010 to 2016 of the volume of BaoShen north railway. Based on the steps established by GM （1,1） model, it analyzes the residual Error correction. Finally, the predicted values of the freight volume of the package are collected within the reasonable prediction accuracy, and the prediction results are carried out,which can help make a scientific and reasonable decision for the decision maker.