摘要
选用1997—2013年中国30省统计数据，研究了工业污染治理投资的空间溢出效应对就业的影响．首先计算工业污染治理投资、就业规模的Moran‘sI指数，发现工业污染治理投资、就业规模存在显著的空间相关性，然后使用空间计量模型研究工业污染治理投资对第二产业就业的影响．结果表明：1）空间杜宾模型是研究该问题的最恰当模型．空间LM检验拒绝模型简化为空间误差模型；解释变量空间滞后项的系数显著不为零意味着模型也不能简化为空间滞后模型．2）工业污染治理投资对就业存在显著的直接效应0．107，负向的溢出效应0．36，总效应表现为挤出就。
This paper studies the effect of the industrial pollution investment to employment by the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2013 in China. From the Moran＇I of the indus- trial pollution treatment investment and employment, we find that there exits significant spatial correlation in industrial pollution treatment investment and employment, therefore, we choose Spatial Durbin Model to investigate this problem. The study shows that： （1） Spatial Durbin Model is the best way to investigate this issue. Spatial LM Test refuses the Spatial Error Model, and the lag of explanatory variables is significant not zero, hence the model can＇t be simplified to Spatial Lag Model. （2） The industrial pollution treatment investment has a positive direct impact 0.107 on employment, a negative spatial spillover effect 0.36, and the total effect is crowding-out to the employments.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2018年第4期26-33,共8页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473233)
