老龄化下人口政策与经济增长关系研究

Study on the relationship between population policy and economic growth in the context of aging

在人口老龄化程度不断加深的背景下，本文提出并建立人口经济模型，考察老龄化、二胎政策和延迟退休政策对经济体的长期影响．从个体和厂商的微观决策出发，一般均衡时的稳态资本存量恰好符合黄金定律，本文建立的理论模型是对新古典增长理论的改进和创新．通过将新生人口增长率和预期寿命两个人口结构参数引入模型，结合数值模拟的方法，研究发现控制人口出生和预期寿命延长都是造成人口老龄化的原因，而二者对经济体的影响却不相同；鼓励生育和延迟退休能够调节人口年龄和就业结构，但在长期视角下对经济体有着不同方向的影响．平衡增长路径上的经济增长速度取决于技术进步率，解决人口老龄化问题不能仅仅依靠人口和就业政策，应着力提高生产创新能力，增强经济发展的内生动力．

This paper constructs population-economy model under the background of population aging degree deepening to explore the effects of aging, two-child policy and postponed retirement on economy in the long term. Starting from the micro decision making of individuals and companies, capital stock in steady state conforms to the golden rule in general equilibrium. The model in this paper is the improvement and innovation of neoclassical growth theory. By introducing newborn growth rate and life expectancy into the model and using numerical simulation method, we find that birth control and longevity are both the causes of ageing but have different impacts on economy. In the other hand, encouraging birth and postponed retirement can both adjust the age and employment structure but have opposite effects on economy. The long-term economic growth depends on exogenous technological progress. To solve the problem of aging, government should not only rely on population and employment policy, but also focus on improving the ability of innovation.