山东省城镇化包容性发展的时空格局

The spatial and temporal patterns of inclusive development in the urbanization of Shandong province

在中国城镇化发展的战略转型期,将"包容性"理念融入新型城镇化道路的建设中,从发展机会平等、发展内容全面、发展成果共享三个维度解析了城镇化包容性发展的内涵,并构建测评指标体系,以山东省为案例进行了实证研究。结果表明:(1)2005-2014年,山东省城镇化包容性发展评价值均小于0.5,处于以排斥性特征为主的过渡时期,不同维度的评价值呈现发展机会平等<发展内容全面<发展成果共享的态势;(2)只有青岛市进入了包容性特征为主的过渡时期,济南等10地市处于排斥性特征为主的过渡时期,菏泽等6地市处于排斥性发展阶段;(3)各地市综合评价值与发展机会变量的正相关性最显著,说明发展机会不均等是较多地市城镇化包容性发展综合评价值偏低的主要原因。发展机会、发展内容与发展成果的相关性较弱,说明山东省较多地区的城镇化建设投入和成果还未能有效的惠及城乡。理论上,实现了从起点、过程、结果等内在联系紧密的三个维度刻画城镇化的发展水平,完善了城镇化的质量内涵。实践上,可以从不同层面检视城镇化包容性发展的障碍因素,为城镇化的质量提升提供指引。

In the period of China＇s strategic transition in urbanization development, the concept of ＂inclusiveness＂ was integrated into the development of a new type of urbanization. Against this backdrop, this study analyzes the connotations of inclusive development in urbanization from three dimensions, namely equal development opportunities, comprehensive development content, and development-achievement sharing. It also constructs a measurement index system and involves an empirical investigation, taking Shandong Province as the study case. The findings indicated the following： （1） From 2005 to 2014, the evaluation values for the inclusive development of urbanization in the stydy area was all below 0. 5, indicating that urbanization was in a transitional phase mainly characterized by exclusiveness. Moreover, the evaluation values for the different dimensions presented a trend indicating that ＂equal development opportunities 〈 comprehensive development content 〈 development achievement sharing.＂ （2） With the exception of Qingdao, which was entering a transition period characterized mainly by inclusiveness, ten prefec^tre-level cities, including Jinan, were in a transition phase characterized by exclusiveness, and six prefecture-level cities, including Heze, were at the development stage of exclusiveness. （3） The positive correlation between the comprehensive evaluation values and the development opportunity variables for various prefecture-level cities was highly significant, suggesting that the inequality of development opportunities is the main reason for the low comprehensive evaluation values of inclusive development in the urbanization of many prefecture-level cities. There were weak correlations among the development opportunities, development content, and development achievements, which indicate that in many parts of Shandong, urban and rural areas have yet to effectively benefit from the inputs and achievements of urbanization. Theoretically, Shandong has achieved the development levels of urbanization depicted by three intrinsically linked dimensions, namely starting points, processes, and results, and improved the way in which the quality of urbanization is perceived. Practically, the study examines, from different levels, the factors that hinder the inclusive development of urbanization and subsequently provides guidance for improving the quality of urbanization.