中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的服务贸易动态比较优势及其结构性演进分析

Analysis of the Dynamic Comparative Advantage and Structural Evolution of the Trade in Service between China and Countries along the “Belt and Road”

本文分析了中国与"一带一路"沿线65个国家12个服务贸易部门的比较优势及其动态演进。研究结果显示,"一带一路"沿线国家服务贸易的比较优势水平较低,尤其是在知识产权、金融、保险等资本与知识密集型服务部门表现更为明显;一些在特定服务贸易部门显示出较高的比较优势与专业化分工指数,形成"一带一路"地区初步的服务分工与专业化格局。从时间累积变动幅度来看,"一带一路"沿线国家具有初始显著比较劣势的服务贸易部门比较优势上升较快;而具有较强比较优势的服务贸易部门表现较为稳定甚至呈现出下降的趋势。中国在"一带一路"沿线国家中服务贸易比较优势较低且比较稳定,需要以"一带一路"为契机推动中国服务分工与贸易模式的转型升级。

This paper analyzes the comparative advantage and dynamic evolution of 12 departments of trade in services between China and 65 countries related to the ＂Belt and Road＂. The result indicates that the comparative advantage level is relatively low in general, especially in the capital and knowledge intensive departments such as intellectual property, finance and insurance. Some countries show high comparative advantage index in particular service trade sectors,and form the initial division and specialization pattern of trade in services. From the perspective of time accumulation variation, the departments that have initial significant comparative disadvantage experience a faster rising in comparative advantage, but the departments that have strong comparative advantage show steady or declining trend. The result also shows that China＇s comparative advantage of trade in services is low and stable, and the＂Belt and Road＂strategy can be an opportunity for China to push forward the specialization level and trade pattern transformation.