国际技术溢出对区域经济增长的门槛效应研究

Threshold Effect of International Technology Spillover on Regional Economic Growth

国际技术溢出对经济增长的影响具有门槛效应,但其作用机制在我国沿海地区与内陆地区并不相同.本文使用2003—2014年中国省际面板数据,分别估算沿海地区与内陆地区技术溢出促进经济增长的转折点.结果表明:沿海地区的技术溢出转折点显著高于内陆地区水平.但是由于吸收能力的地区差异,综合吸收能力增强提高了内陆地区技术溢出对经济增长由促进转向抑制的阀值,而沿海地区技术溢出转折点降低.在此基础上,通过双门槛回归模型进一步检验了影响国际技术溢出的各种吸收能力因素的门槛特征,从R&D强度、经济发展、金融发展、对外开放程度、人口老龄化和制度因素6个方面分别测算了最大化正向技术溢出和逆向技术溢出效应的门槛值,发现各吸收能力因素对国际技术溢出促进经济增长的作用是非线性的,即吸收能力因素介于两门槛值之间时,才能最大化技术溢出效应.

The impact of international technology spillovers has a threshold effect on economic growth,but its mechanism is different in China＇s coastal areas and inland areas. It used China＇s provincial panel data from 2003 to 2014 to estimate the turning point of technology spillovers promoting economic growth in coastal areas and inland areas respectively. The results show that the turning point of technology spillovers in coastal areas is significantly higher than that in inland areas. However,due to the regional disparity of absorptive capacity,increased absorptive capacity improves the threshold from promotion to suppression of technology spillovers on economic growth in inland areas,whereas the turning point in coastal areas decreases. Based on this,it further tested the threshold characteristics of various absorptive capacity factors influencing international technology spillover through the double-threshold regression model,and respectively estimated the threshold levels of positive spillover and reverse spillover from the six aspects of RD intensity,economic development,financial development,degree of opening-up,population aging and institutional factors. The conclusion is drawn that the effects of absorptive capacity factors on the international spillovers are nonlinear,that is,when the absorptive capacity factor is between the two thresholds,it can maximize technology spillovers.