广义拉弗曲线在中国成立吗——基于省际PSTR的实证分析

Is the Generalized Laffer Curve Valid in China? An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial PSTR

广义拉弗曲线表述的是财政收入占比与经济增长率之间可能存在类似拉弗的倒U型关系。通过构建理论模型,并采用面板平滑转移方法 (PSTR)进行实证分析,发现广义拉弗曲线在我国确实成立,财政收入占比与实际GDP增长率之间是只有一个阈值、两种体制的非线性关系,且这种关系是呈倒U型的。在一个合理的定义域内,财政赤字率将与最优值同向变化;通过对纳入政府性基金收入、国有资本经营收入和社保基金收入的全口径财政收入进行稳健性检验,得到了一致性的结论;不同省份间的倒U型曲线位置及最优值存在差异,发达省份应坚持"小政府"思路,将资源配置决定权交给市场;财政收入的理论最优值略低于现实平均值。因此,结构性减税和积极的财政政策对中国经济持续增长是有帮助的。

There may exist an inverted U-shaped relationship between the fiscal revenue ratio and the economic growth rate, which is termed as the generalized Laffer Curve. Through constructing a theoretical model, this paper adopts the method of panel smooth transition regression（PSTR） to conduct an empirical analysis. The findings show that the generalized Laffer Curve does exist in China; between the fiscal revenue ratio and the real GDP growth rate there is a non-linear relationship with one threshold value and two kinds of systems, and this relationship is of the inverted U-shape. Within a reasonable domain of definition, the fiscal deficit ratio will change together with the optimal value. By carrying out a robustness test on the full aperture fiscal revenue that includes the governmental fund income, the operating income of the state-owned capital and the social security fund income, it draws the conclusions that are consistent. The positions of the U-shaped curve and the optimal values are different in different provinces; the advanced provinces should adhere to the idea of ＂ small government＂, handing the decision-making power of resource allocation over to the market. The theoretical optimal value of fiscal revenue is somewhat lower than the real average value. Therefore, the structural tax reduction and the proactive fiscal policy are favorable for the continuous growth of Chinese economy.