中国高新技术产业出口产品质量的测度及其跨国比较研究

Measurement on Export Product Quality of China's High-Tech Industry and Its Cross-Border Comparative Research

基于BACI微观贸易数据库,运用需求信息回归推断法从整体、行业以及产品三个层面对1995—2013年中国的高新技术产业的出口产品质量展开综合测度,并与主要发达经济体及新兴市场经济体进行横向比较。研究表明:(1)中国高新技术产业整体的出口产品质量在考察期内呈现"急剧上升-波动震荡"的阶段性变化特征,即先是在1995—2004年间处于大幅上升的态势,继而出现升降交替甚至急剧波动震荡的现象。(2)基于产品层面的考察发现,中国高新技术产品的出口质量总体呈现向好迹象,但近年来的提升速度有所放缓。(3)基于行业层面的考察发现,几乎所有的高新技术行业的出口产品质量在考察期内均存在明显的波动特征,其中部分行业的出口产品质量出现不同程度的下降,而另外部分行业的出口产品质量则在曲折波动中呈增长态势。(4)跨国比较表明,中国高新技术产业的出口产品质量与发达经济体相比处于中下游水平,特别与美国、日本和德国等发达经济体相比仍存在较大的差距;与其他新兴市场经济体相比,中国高新技术产业的出口产品质量领先于印度,与墨西哥、巴西等相当,但自始至终落后于俄罗斯等。

Based on the BACI micro-trade database, this paper adopts the method of demand information regression inference to comprehensively measure the export product quality of China＇s high-tech industries over the period of 1995-2013 from the three levels of overall, industry and product, then it makes a horizontal comparison with the major advanced economies and the emerging market economies. The result shows that：（1） the overall export product quality of China＇s high-tech industry presents a periodical changing characteristics of ＂ sharp rise-fluctuation shock＂ during the sample period, i.e., it firstly has a tendency of rising sharply between 1995 and 2004, then the phenomenon of alternative rising and falling even sharp fluctuations appears;（2） the product-level study indicates that the export quality of China＇s high-tech products generally shows a sign of improvement, but the pace of improvement in recent years has slowed down.（3） the industry-level study indicates that the export product quality of almost all of the high-tech industries shows significant fluctuation characteristics during the sample period, the export product quality of some of the industry declines in varying degrees, while the export product quality of other part of the industry shows a upward trend in the twisted fluctuations.（4） the cross-border comparison shows that the export product quality of China＇s high-tech industries stays at the middle or lower reaches compared with the advanced economies, there is still a big gap between China and the USA, Japan and Germany; but compared with the emerging market economies, the export product quality of China＇s high-tech industries is superior to that of India, equivalent to that of Mexico and Brazil, but always lags behind Russia and so on.