经济增长方式的判别——基于碳减排视角并以京津冀及周边地区为例

Discrimination of economic growth modes:Based on carbon reduction on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas

提出一种基于碳排放视角的经济增长方式的判别方法,认为经济增长方式主要分为高碳、中高碳、中低碳、低碳等增长类型,并给出了各种类型的判别区间。以京津冀及周边地区为例,实证研究表明:2000—2013年,北京、天津、河北的经济增长方式分别为低碳增长、中低碳增长、高碳增长类型;周边地区仅辽宁为中低碳增长类型,山东、内蒙古、河南、山西均为高碳增长类型。要实现经济低碳增长需要调整以煤炭为主的能源结构和以重化工为主的产业结构,发挥科技创新的引领和支撑作用。

A method of judging economic growth mode from the perspective of carbon emission is proposed.It is concluded that economic growth mode is mainly divided into high-carbon,medium-high carbon,mediumlow carbon,low carbon and other types,and discrimination interval is proposed. Taking the Beijing-TianjinHebei and its surrounding areas as an example,empirical study shows that the economic growth modes of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei respectively are low-carbon growth,medium-low-carbon growth and high-carbon growth in 2000—2003; among its surroundings only Liaoning belongs to low-carbon growth type, while Shandong,Inner Mongolia,Henan,Shanxi are high-carbon growth types. It is necessary to adjust the coaldominated energy structure and heavy chemical-based industrial structure to realize the economic low-carbon growth,playing the leading and support role of scientific and technological innovation.