基于微观建模的重庆市碳排放权交易模拟研究

Study on carbon emission trading in Chongqing based on micro-simulation

基于自主体模拟与投入产出表相结合的建模方法,对重庆市碳排放交易市场的运行进行模拟。结果表明:重庆市碳市场将促进重庆市产业结构的升级;在参与交易的工业企业中,产出受益较大的是建筑材料及其他非金属矿物制品业,产出大约增长0.95%,产出受损最大的是采掘业,电力及蒸汽热水生产和供应业,产出将下降约1.95%;在重庆碳市场中,处于卖方的行业主要为采掘业、食品制造业、建筑材料及其他非金属矿物制品业等,买方部门主要包括纺织缝纫及皮革产品制造业、其他制造业、电力及蒸汽热水生产和供应业等;在碳市场的作用下,重庆市碳排放高峰将显著提前,2015—2050年重庆市累积减少碳排放933百万吨碳,至2050年累积交易量将达到58.6百万吨碳。

Based on the combined modeling method of agent-based simulation and input-output table,the operation of the carbon trading emission in Chongqing is carried out. Results show that： The carbon emission trading will promote the upgrading of Chongqing’s industrial structure. Among the industries involved in carbon emission trading,the most beneficial industries are the construction materials and other non-metallic mineral products industries,with about 0. 95% increase in output,while the most damaged industries include the mining industry,and the electricity and steam hot water production and supply industry,with about 1. 95%decrease in output. In the carbon emission trading market of Chongqing,the seller sectors include mining industry,food manufacturing industry,building materials industry and other non-metallic mineral products industries; and the buyer sectors mainly include textile sewing and leather products manufacturing industry,other manufacturing industry,electricity and steam heat water production and supply industry. With the implementation of carbon emission trading,the carbon emission peak in Chongqing will be significantly ahead of business-as-usual. The cumulative carbon emission reduction during 2015—2050 in Chongqing will be 933 million tons of carbon（ Mt C）,and the cumulative transaction volume will reach 58. 6 Mt C.