基于马克思两大部类和CGE模型的碳税研究——以北京市为例

Research on carbon-tax policy based on Marx's two categorization theory and CGE model:Taking Beijing as an example

在马克思的两大部类分类法及平衡思想的基础上,基于《北京市2012年投入产出表》对42个部门按两大部类进行实证分析和数据统计研究,并综合考虑影响二氧化碳排放的能源部门与三大产业划分方法,把42个部门合并为六大部门。在此基础上编制用于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型的社会核算矩阵,利用CGE模型的标准模块外加一个碳税模块模拟北京市2012年宏观经济运行,以及在征收不同标准的碳税后北京市宏观经济指标的变化情况。结果表明:碳税征收在每吨250元($30)以内时,北京市GDP的损失可以控制在1%之内;同时碳税征收应当对不同类型的部门区别对待或对居民进行福利补贴,以实现税收的中立性原则。

According to the theory of Marx ’s two categories and their balance,this paper groups 42 departments in Beijing Input and Output Table in 2012 into 6 departments by considering the classification methods of the energy department and three industries which may have effect on the carbon emission. Then a social accounting matrix of Beijing in 2012 was established,which is the foundation of computable general equilibrium（ CGE） model. This paper simulates macroeconomic situation of Beijing in 2012 by using standard CGE model and adding a carbon tax sub-model. It shows the simulated result of macroeconomic indexes of Beijing after levying carbon tax with different level. The result also indicates that the loss of Beijing’s GDP can be controlled in 1% within the carbon tax of 250 yuan（ $ 30） per ton. Meanwhile,the government should offer the household subsidy in order to reflect the neutral principle of tax,and levy different departments with different tax levels.