中国产出缺口的估算与新常态情景下的通胀预期

Estimation on the output gap of China and the inflation expectation in “new normal” phase

产出缺口是评估通胀压力的先行指标,也是国家制定宏观经济调控政策的重要依据。对中国改革开放以来的潜在产出与产出缺口进行估算并对新常态情景下的潜在产出进行预测,研究发现:中国的产出缺口呈现古典的正负周期性波动;20世纪90年代起资本贡献的潜在产出增长率持续上升,至2009年才有所回落;劳动力贡献的潜在产出增长率低于资本贡献的潜在产出增长率;自2005年起全要素生产率贡献的潜在产出增长率持续下降;通货膨胀与产出缺口之间存在显著的双向Granger因果关系;通货膨胀的外生冲击对产出缺口具有显著的负效应,生产资料价格和产品物价在当期上涨会降低未来产品的供给量和居民的需求量,从而收窄了产出缺口;产出缺口的外生冲击对通货膨胀具有显著的正向影响,产出缺口的通胀效应在未来第1期达到最大,之后逐步衰减;在经济新常态情景下中国未来几年的潜在产出增长率将下降至6%左右,产出缺口的收窄有利于缓和通胀压力。政府应着力推进供给侧结构性改革以提高全要素生产率来实现经济的健康持续发展。

Output gap is a forecasting indicator to assess inflationary pressures,and also an important foundation for national macroeconomic regulation and control policies. This paper estimates China’s potential output and output gap since reform and opening-up,and predicts the output gap in China’s new normal phase.The study finds that China’s output gap presents classical positive and negative cyclical fluctuations. Since the1990 s,the potential output growth rate from capital contribution continued to rise until 2009. The potential output growth rate from labor contribution is lower than that from capital contribution. The potential output growth rate from TFP contribution continued to decline since 2005. There is a significant two-way Grangercausality between inflation and output gap. The exogenous shock of inflation has a significant negative effect on the output gap,and the rise in the prices of production material and the product in the current period will reduce the supply of products and the demand from residents in the future,which will narrow the output gap. The exogenous shock of the output gap has a significant positive impact on inflation,and the inflation effect of the output gap is maximized in the first phase of the future,followed by the attenuation. In the new economic situation,China’s potential output growth in the next few years will drop to about 6%,and narrowing the output gap is conducive to easing inflationary pressures. Governments should focus on promoting supply-side structural reforms to increase total factor productivity to achieve healthy and sustainable economic development.