中国人口新常态与新型人口红利研究

Research on the new normal population and the new demographic dividend in China

进入21世纪10年代以来,我国人口发生了结构性与趋势性的转变,主要表现为人口自然增长率持续走低、劳动年龄人口减少、少子化和老龄化并存、人口平均预期寿命延长和人口文化素质提高等为主要特征的人口新常态。在人口新常态背景下,我国曾经以充足劳动力和较低抚养比为主导的传统人口红利逐渐消失,以人口结构调整、人口素质提高和人口城镇化水平提高为主导的新型人口红利正在产生。对当前新型人口红利的开发与利用可成为支撑我国经济持续增长的动力来源和成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的动力机制。

Since the 2010 s,the structural and tendency change of the populationin in our country has taken place,and it mainly shows a new normal population with the main characteristics that the natural population growth rate has been a continuing fall; the working age population has decreased; the low birth rate and aging have been coexisted; the average life expectancy has been extended and the population cultural quality has been improved. Under the background of the new normal population,in our country the traditional demographic dividendonce dominated by the sufficient labour and low dependency ratio gradually disappears,and the new demographic dividend dominated by the adjustment of population structure,the enhancement of population quality and the improvement of population urbanization level is born. It is concluded that through the development and use of new type demographic dividend could be the power source of China ’s sustained economic growth,and the dynamic mechanism for crossing the ＂middle-income trap＂.