基于D-S证据理论的城市轨道交通线网规划评价研究

Study on Urban Rail Transit Network Planning Evaluation based on D-S Evidence Theory

为了系统科学地评价城市轨道交通线网规划水平,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的城市轨道交通线网规划评价方法。首先,构建综合评价指标体系,通过层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重;其次,通过证据理论,运用信任函数与似然函数,计算评价因素的水平赋值上下界,给出不确定性的合理范围,并通过证据融合原则,对多名专家评价结果进行融合,综合考虑评价结果。最后,以成都地铁线网规划为实例进行分析,结果表明,基于证据理论的城市轨道交通线网规划评价方法能够降低因人的判断偏差而引起的随机误差,较好地量化与融合不确定性风险因素。

In order to evaluate the level of urban rail transit network planning scientifically and systematically, an evaluation method of urban rail transit network planning based on D-S evidence theory is proposed. Firstly, a comprehensive evaluation index system is established, and its weight of each index is determined by AHP; secondly, through the evidence theory, the upper and lower bounds of the evaluation factors are calculated, so the reasonable uncertainty range is given. Then through the principle of evidence fusion, several expert evaluation results are fused, and a comprehensive evaluation result is obtained. Finally, according to the analysis of the evaluation results on Chengdu metro network planning, it is showed that evaluation method based on evidence theory can reduce the random error caused by inaccurate judgment, and better quantify and fusion of uncertain risk factors.