网络突发群体事件网民群体情绪传播模型及仿真研究

Research on Netizen Group Emotion Contagion Model and the Simulation under Network Group Emergencies

【目的/意义】研究网络突发群体事件下网民群体情绪传播的规律,更好地预测其发展趋势,以便采取有效的措施来降低网络突发群体事件的不良影响。【方法/过程】在经典SIR传染病模型的基础上,将网民所处情绪状态分为S状态、I状态、R1状态和R2状态四类,考虑情绪的自我调节和不稳定性以及政府的调控能力,构建了网络突发群体事件下网民群体情绪传播模型,并对模型进行求解及分析和数值仿真。【结果/结论】仿真实验表明:情绪的不稳定性以及政府调控能力等参数均对网民群体情绪传播的影响显著,而情绪的自我调节能力作用有限。并依据仿真结果针对各参数的影响给出了相关政策建议。

【Purpose/significance】To take effective measures to reduce the harmful effects of network group emergencies,we must study the law of the emotion contagion of netizen group under network group emergencies and forecast its trend.【Method/process】Based on the classical SIR epidemic model, we divided the emotional state of netizens into four categories： S, I, R1 and R2. Considering the instability and self-regulation of emotion as well as the control capability of government, we constructed a netizen group emotion contagion model under network group emergencies. Then the solving process,analysis and simulation experiment were given.【Results/conclusion】The simulation results show that the instability of emotion and the control capability of government have significant influences on the emotion contagion of netizen group, but the effects of self-regulation are limited. According to the simulation results, some policy suggestions are given.