2016年中国沿海海平面上升显著成因分析及影响

Analysis on the sea level anomaly high of 2016 in China coastal area

使用中国沿海及西北太平洋区域的水位、海温、气温、气压和风等水文气象资料,详细分析了2016年中国沿海海平面显著升高的成因及影响。分析结果表明:(1)2012-2016年,中国沿海海平面处于准2a、4a、准9a和准19a周期振荡的高位,几个周期振荡高位叠加,对该时段海平面上升起了一定的作用;(2)2016年,中国沿海气温和海温较1993-2011年的平均值分别高0.7℃与0.5℃,均处于1980年以来高位;气压较1993-2011年的平均值低0.2hPa;(3)2016年4月、9月、10月和11月,中国沿海海平面均达到1980年以来同期高位,这4个月的风场距平值在东海以南均明显偏大,且以偏南向和向岸风为主,风生流使得海水向岸堆积,沿海长时间以增水为主,对当月局部海平面上升的贡献率达到40%~80%;(4)2016年,中国沿海降水总体偏多,局部区域降水量达到历史同期最高,加上沿海径流量的增加,对沿海局部海平面升高有一定贡献;(5)2016年9-10月,有5个台风相继影响我国南部沿海,持续的风暴潮增水导致台风影响期间的海平面高于当月平均海平面70~360mm,风暴潮和洪涝灾害给当地造成直接经济损失超过30亿元。

Based on tide,sea surface temperature（SST）,air temperature（AT）,barometric pressure and wind data etc.,the sea level amomaly high of 2016 in the China coastal area is investigated.The results show that the coincidence of several long-period（~2 a,4 a,~9 aand^19 a）vibration made the sea level high during 2010-2016.In 2016,AT and SST along the China coastal area are 0.7℃ and 0.5℃ higher than normal,reached the higher level in history,and the barometric pressure is-0.2 hPa lower than normal.In April,September,October and November 2016,the South China Sea strongest southerly wind lead East China Sea and South China Sea coastal waters for a long time accumulation.The residual water levels contribute 40%-80%to sea level rise.In April2016,the El Ni1 o event finished,and the tropical Pacific return to La Ni1 a state.The precipitation is more serious than normal under this influence,and regional precipitation reached highest in history.At the same time,the increase of runoff resulted in sea level rise.During September and October,five cyclones impacted South China,the continue storm surge caused the sea level 70-360 mm higher than the monthly sea level.The storm surge and flood caused serious economic loss.