太阳黑子相对数的多时间尺度及混沌特性分析

Analysis of multiple time scales feature and chaotic property for time series of relative sunspot numbers

本文将1749年1月至2016年12月的太阳黑子相对数作为研究对象,利用集合经验模态分解方法和混沌动力学理论对该观测资料进行了多时间尺度和混沌特性分析,并对比了太阳黑子相对数和其剔除周期成分或混沌成分后的时间序列的分析结果.结果表明,太阳黑子相对数由周期成分、混沌成分和趋势成分组成,有着明显的多时间尺度和混沌特性,太阳黑子活动规律由产生周期性活动的物理机制和混沌动力学因素共同作用的结果.在进行多时间尺度分析时,剔除其混沌成分,不影响多时间尺度分析结果.在进行混沌特性分析时,太阳黑子相对数比其剔除周期成分后的时间序列的混沌特征更明显.

Using observational data of the relative sunspot numbers from January 1749 to December 2016, the multiple time scales and chaotic characteristics have been analyzed based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method and chaotic dynamics theory, then the differences between the relative sunspot numbers and the time series with the periodic components removed are especially compared. The results show that the relative sunspot numbers are mainly composed of periodic components, chaotic components and a trend component, and they have multi-time scale and chaotic characteristics. Therefore, the long-term solar activity is the result of the physical mechanism of periodic phenomenon and the factors of chaotic dynamical characteristics. In the multi-time scale analysis, the results are still the same as the relative sunspot numbers removed chaotic components, but chaotic characteristics become stronger if the periodic components are removed.