南海海域风浪环境极值要素推算研究

Study on extreme value element calculation of wind seas at South China Sea

该文收集了南海海域以往20年风浪环境数据,按照地形特点将整个南海海域分为68个区块,采用目前国内外普遍使用的推算极值波高的概率分布P-Ⅲ型、Weibull和Gumbel,对各个区块环境极值要素进行统计分析。然后采用均方根误差方法对三种分布模型的适用性进行对比检验,检验结果表明P-Ⅲ型分布更适合南海海域。最后基于P-Ⅲ型统计结果,推算出南海海域各个区块不同重现期的风速、有效波高和平均周期。研究结果可为南海海域的建设和开发提供相关参考。

The wind seas data at past 20 years of South China Sea are collected. According to the geography characters, the South China Sea area is divided into 68 blocks. Three probability distribution models P-Ⅲ,Weibull and Gumbel, which are commonly used on the extreme value calculation of wave height at home and abroad, are adopted to calculate the extreme value elements of the different blocks at South China Sea. Afterward, by the RMS deviation, the applicability of three distribution models are compared and analyzed, and the comparison result shows that P-Ⅲmodel is better than the others. Based on the calculation result of P-model, the winⅢ d speed, wave height and average wave period in different reappearing periods of every blocks are obtained. The research result will offer important support for the building and development at South China Sea.