中国粮食产量连续增长的源泉

The Source of China’s Grain Production Growth(2000—2013)

2004年以来中国粮食产量实现12连增，从增长的源泉看，制度变迁解释了62．48％，农业产品价格上涨解释了37．52％；从区域差异看，制度变迁绩效从南到北逐渐减弱，而价格效应则相反，从南到北逐渐增强。进一步分解，粮食增产主要来自于农业要素投入的增加和农业TFP的增长，其中要素投入增加解释了30．64％，TFP增长解释了69．36％：在区域上，东北部玉米区实现了要素投入和TFP增长的“双轮驱动”，中部小麦区和南部水稻更多源于TFP的增长。尽管农业劳动力数量逐年减少，但中国农业制度变迁等于是一种增加有效劳动供给的创新。因此，农业科技进步和现代农业要素投入增加是国家粮食安全的重要保障。而制度变迁是动力。

Since 2004, China＇s grain production has grown continuously for 12 years. The source of agricultural growth mainly comes from the increase of agricultural inputs and total factor productivity （TFP） growth, Our panel data analysis of Chinese agricultural production from 2000 to 2015 attributes 30. 64% of agricultural inputs and 69. 36% of its TFP growth, 62. 48% of TFP is due to institutional change and the rest to price increases. From the regional perspective, The source of agricultural production continuously growth obvious regional differences,the TFP growth of corn-growing regions in the northeast is mainly due to increased agricultural inputs and TFP growth, rice-growing regions in the south and wheat-growing regions in the middle regions are mainly due to TFP growth. Further analysis of regional TFP growth,the performance of institutional changes gradually decreases from south to north, while the price effect is gradually enhanced from south to north. Although the number of agricultural labor is de- creasing year by year,the change of agricultural institution is a kind of innovation that increases effective labor supply. Therefore, the progress of agricultural scientific and technological and increase of modern ag- ricultural factors are an important guarantee for national food security, and institutional change is driving force.