金融体系让利与实体经济利润增长是零和博弈吗?——基于安徽省上市公司的实证研究

Is the Profit of the Financial System and the Profit Growth of the Real Economy a Zero Sum Game?——An Empirical Study based on the Listed Companies in Anhui

本文首先通过博弈分析,发现不存在影子银行时,金融体系让利与实体经济利润增长是零和博弈;存在影子银行时,实体经济利润增长小于金融体系让利。其次通过安徽省上市公司的实证分析,发现实体经济利润增长小于金融体系让利。据此得出结论:一是影子银行在我国真实存在,二是影子银行存在时,金融体系让利与实体经济利润增长的政策结果是双输。因此,建议在金融体系让利实体经济的同时,要深化影子银行治理,更多的通过优化财税政策支持实体经济发展。

First, through game analysis, it is found that when there is no shadow banking, the profit growth of the financial system and the real economic growth is a zero sum game. When shadow banking exists, the profit growth of the real economy is smaller than that of the financial system. Secondly, through the empirical analysis of Listed Companies in Anhui Province, it is found that the growth of real economic profit is less than the profit of the financial system. Accordingly, we draw the conclusion： first, shadow banking exists in China. Two, when the shadow banking is in existence, the policy result of financial system profits and real economic profit growth is double lose. Therefore, it is suggested that in the financial system, we should deepen the management of shadow banking while giving up the real economy, and support the development of the real economy by optimizing the fiscal and taxation policies.