作物生长模拟模型的参数敏感性分析

Sensitivity analysis for parameters of crop growth simulation model

对小麦作物模型WOFOST(world food studies)的参数进行辨析,并利用OAT(one-at-a-time)分析方法对WOFOST模型的作物和土壤参数进行敏感性分析,同时对小麦生长模拟结果进行解析。结果表明,从出苗到开花的积温(TSUM1)、根干物质分配系数(FRTB)、储存器官的同物质转换效率(CVO)、茎的同化物转换效率(CVS)、初始发展阶段因子(DVSI)、在35℃时叶的生命周期(SPAN)、生育期的比叶面积(SLATB)参数的相对敏感度都大于0.5,表现为强敏感性,对模型模拟结果影响较大。基于不同产量指标和不同生产水平条件下对WOFOST模型影响较大的参数基本一致,其相对敏感度差异不大。小麦叶面积指数(leaf area index,LAI)的模拟结果表明,小麦从播种到开花的时间为137 d,而从开花到成熟的时间为66 d,与实际情况基本吻合。本研究结果可为WOFOST模型的应用和模型调参提供依据。

Parameters of wheat crop growth model WOFOST(world food studies) were discriminated, and the sensitivity of crop and soil parameters in WOFOST model was analyzed using OAT(one-at-a-time) analysis method. Meanwhile, the simulation results of wheat growth were explained. Results showed that the relative sensitivities of seven parameters of WOFOST model, including TSUM1, FRTB, CVO, CVS, DVSI, SPAN,SLATB, were all greater than 0.5, which presented strong sensitivity and had greater influence on the model simulation results. The parameters which had greater influence on the WOFOST model based on different levels of yield and production were almost the same, and the relative sensitivity had no significant difference. Simulation results of leaf area index(LAI) showed that the days of wheat from sowing to flowering were 137, and the days of wheat from flowering to maturity were 66, which was in accordance with the actual days. This study provides a basis for the application and parameter adjustment of WOFOST model.