摘要
根据刘易斯二元经济结构理论,以中国第一产业发展为研究对象,运用数据包络分析法,分离各生产要素对第一产业的贡献值来探讨中国城乡人口流动问题。测算结果表明:返乡浪潮的出现解释了城市"用工荒"现象;1963-1975年的人口增长率为24.72‰,由此预测,这部分劳动力在2013-2031年陆续返乡,可能会造成更大程度的城市"用工荒",并对中国经济持续增长造成影响。
Based on Lewis' s dual economic structure theory,this paper takes the development of China' s primary industry as the research object,the data envelopment analysis method is used to separate the contribution of production factors to the primary industry to explore the issue of urban and rural population flow in China. The results show that the emergence of returning home explains " labor shortage" in the city. According to results,we also find that the population growth rate in 1963-1975 was 24.72‰,whereby we can predict that this part of the labor forces will return in 2013-2031,which may cause a greater degree of " labor shortage" in the city and affect China sustained economic growth.
出处
《福建农林大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2018年第1期42-49,共8页
Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
福建农林大学科技创新专项基金项目(CXZX2016245)
关键词
刘易斯拐点
城乡人口流动
数据包络分析法
Lewis turning point
the urban and rural population flow
Data Envelopment Analysis
