住宅价格如何影响城镇居民消费--基于状态空间模型的研究

How Housing Prices Affect Urban Residents' Consumption--Research Based on State Space Model

基于时变参数状态空间模型,利用1999—2016年的季度数据测算了我国住宅价格对城镇居民消费影响的时变特征。结果表明,我国住宅价格对消费的影响整体上呈现微弱的财富效应,住宅价格的MPC位于0.0543到0.1155之间。2004年之前住宅价格上升对消费的影响波动剧烈,2004年后大致呈现先上升,2013年后开始下降的"倒U"型趋势。这说明近年来房价上升对消费的挤出效应迅速增强。鉴于此,从挤出效应传导机制入手,政府应该谨慎平稳调整房价、增加保障性住房供给,并提高城镇化进行中外来人口收入。

Based on time-varying parameter state space model,using the quarterly data from 1999 to 2016,this paper measures the time-varying characteristics of the impact on urban residents＇ consumption of China＇s housing price. The results show that on the whole housing prices present a weak wealth effect. Before 2004,the housing prices rising had a strong volatility effect on consumption. After 2004,the effect in our country was rising first,then began to decline after 2013,which roughly presents an inverted＂U＂type trend. This shows that the crowding-out impact of house prices on consumption has been increasing rapidly in recent years. In view of this,from the＂crowding-out effect＂transmission mechanism,the government should adjust house price carefully and steadily,increase affordable housing supply,and improve the income of the migrant population in the process of urbanization.