财政分权与基础教育支出增长分析——基于DSGE的框架分析

Fiscal Decentralization and the Growth of Basic Education Expenditure——Based on DSGE Analysis

根据Oates和Tiebout分权理论,地方政府在提供地方性公共物品时具有信息优势,相对于中央政府更加了解辖区居民偏好,从而在提供基础性服务支出时也就更加具有效率,进而能促进经济增长,但这一理论虽然在国外得到了实证检验,却并不符合我国特殊的国情。由于我国官员的晋升机制与国外存在着差异,所以就需要从我国的国情出发具体分析地方政府在提供公共物品时的政策决策。文章试图构建一个含有居民户、厂商、政府的简单DSGE模型,分析地方政府在均衡状态面临一定的冲击时的政策选择,结论是地方政府在面临技术冲击时(生产率冲击)教育支出会有相应程度的增加;而在面临政策冲击时,会选择短期内能够提高GDP的投资性支出,而非教育性支出,也就是说地方政府会更加倾向于投资性支出,进而在增加投资性支出时会抑制基础性教育支出。文章采取了实证分析来验证这一结论,结果显示实证分析符合模型结论。

According to the theory of Oates and Tiebout's theory of decentralization,local governments have the advantage of providing local public goods with respect to central government,it has a better understanding of the preferences of the local people. Thus it makes them more efficient to provide basic services,also it will promotes economic growth.However although the theory has been proved accurately in foreign countries,but it does not meet the special circumstances of our country. As the promotion mechanism of our country is different from that of foreign countries,it is necessary to analyze the policy decisions of local governments in the provision of public goods from the national conditions of our country. This paper attempts to construct a simple DSGE model with resident agents,manufacturers and governments,and attempts to analyze the policy choices of local governments in the face of a certain impact when in a steady state. Then we have the conclusion which local governments have a corresponding degree of education expenditure in the face of technological shocks(productivity impact). Especially when in a policy shock,it will choose shortterm investment spending which can stimulate GDP growth in a short time rather than educational spending,this is to say that local governments will be more inclined to investment spending.In this paper,empirical analysis is used to verify this conclusion. The results show that the empirical analysis is in accordance with the model conclusion.